Big White is AWESOME! An Army story... First Gulf War. You know the one before the second one...

"Flump! Flump! Flump!" Just trying to keep this PC.

Yep, I was a little annoyed.

I'm just gonna do my ADHD thing here. IF you were in the British Army you may remember the Armstrong 500s. Here is a pic. And it is all decked out in desert camouflage... or commonly known as 'painted'.

A pic. Just in case you were confused.

 Okay, back to the story... "Flump!" I added for good measure. My bike, like all Armstrongs, was prone to the timing belt shredding. So much so that I carried spare belts in my little crappy tool kit... so much so that the little hex bolts bolting the cover plate on were worn to the point of being non serviceable or in common army parlance 'fucked'. And... the said timing belt had just shredded... "Flumpity flump flump!"

Okay, so, let me paint a picture. Our unit (22 Engineer Field Squadron) were somewhere in the desert - if any of you remember the pipeline road we were about 22kms down the pipeline road, turn right drive 4kms (ish) and you hit camp. For those of you who don't remember the pipeline road... well it was a road, next to a pipeline.

I have an idea...

My job was building up the defences of an American Black Hawk base around 5kms from our base. I was just building a bund around the base. Every day I would ride my Armstrong to the American camp, push dirt for 8-12 hours (a D6 if you're interested) and then ride it back. One day one of the yanks, with whom I had become familiar... (you know, "Hey" and "Hi") wanted to trade some combats - his yank ones for my brit ones. Yep, I was keen, and I had a surplus pair of trousers back at the hotel. Quick note. When I say hotel I mean the 12'x24' tent that I shared with 11 other stinky, sweaty, smelly squadies... luxury, we even had lots of string the flies could sleep on.

Anyhoo... at the end of my shift I rode the 4 kms to the pipeline road, turned left, 5kms, turned left, 4kms, got to the hotel, grabbed the trousers, and reversed the journey again. 

Another quick note. The Pipeline road was not a 'road' it was a series of potholes making one big, bumpy pothole. Riding the Pipeline road was slow. It was a long journey, it seemed a waste of time... when you could almost see their camp from your camp.


Well, I ride the road, get to the yanks, do the deal (Note, if there are any MPs reading this, it wasn't me) and I leave, it is just getting dark...

Let's go in the right direction... nah, let's wing it.

"Hmmm..." I think to myself... "maybe, I will take a short cut... who needs to go to the road... this way will be quicker" the person now elevated to 'idiot' said to himself. 

I pointed my nose in the approximate direction and I set off. And I get lost. And it is now dark. And we are playing in the dark so no lights. And all the camps are dark... and I am riding around for at least 42 hours (not really) And then my timing belt goes. "Flump."

But, I have the tools, I have the parts, I can fix this...? Nope. Those bolts you see, I cannot see the bolts without holding the torch. I cannot angle the Allen key in just the right position without both hands... 

So, I am in the middle of the desert, it is dark (think black), I'm lost, I cannot repair the bike (I've been trying for about two days now, no, not really), I'm disorientated and the rumour is there are Iraqi hit squads roaming around targeting lonely, lost, broken down dispatch riders... me, specifically, they are looking for me. 

Suddenly I see lights... it is a vehicle. Now a number of thoughts go through my tiny brain... American? British? Other? Iraqi? I'm also thinking that this is a 'dark' operation - no military should have lights on... no? But I also think to myself, no Iraqi hit squad would drive around with lights on either... unless they were using the 'Angler Fish' strategy. Fortunately for me I didn't know what the Angler Fish is... so I didn't have to worry about that.

Let's go and see what that flashy light is.

I decided the chances were that it was more likely to be friendly rather than grumpy. And I (the idiot) needed help... so I flashed the bike light in their direction dot dot dot, dash dash dash, dot dot dot. The only Morse code I knew, the international signal for help, or Mayday... or 'Mum..." Nothing happened, the vehicle kept moving in the same direction. I tried again ...---... still nothing. I start to second guess myself, why are they not responding? Even if they didn't know this Mayday signal, this is the middle of a war zone, the middle of the desert, there shouldn't be anything around... surely someone repeatedly flashing a light at them would draw attention... no?

I tried again... and again... and then... they changed direction, they started driving towards me and they are American. Relief washes over me like a big wet washy-over thing.

Wait... what...?

Now, let's remember, I am in the desert, in the middle of nowhere, my bike is in bits, it is dark, it is late, I am flashing the international signal for Mayday... is it not obvious I require some assistance? No? Yes? Maybe?

The truck drives up to me, the driver winds down his window and he says, in his very southern American drawl... "caaan yuuu taaall mee waarre thaaat AaaaTtt aannd Ttt phones aare?" Sorry that was my best southern drawl writing. ...What? Where the AT&T phones are? 

I'm in the middle... well, you know where I am. I think my mind stopped working. I'm pretty sure he had to ask me twice before I responded. "...Errr, yes... yes I can... but, do you think you could give me some assistance?" ...cos I'm broke down in the middle of the flumping desert... I'm not here on the off-chance someone needs directions.

Well, it is now 30 years later so it all worked out, I got back to camp and the yanks got to the AT&T phones. And bonus... I now know what an Angler Fish is too.

So for you POMs wanting a story, that is one of mine.
C.

Looking capable... Ha!

Big White is AWESOME! A story from the Japanese Odyssey 2019

What are the elements of a good story...? An interesting situation? What about authority figures... The Police? Maybe other characters... A naked Dutch/Indonesian guy... trying to explain to the Japanese Police why he is naked, at 4am... in a laundromat... using google translate...?And maybe some context…  Which leads to the event itself…

Let’s start with some characters… 

·      Alain – also known as Naked guy wrapped in an orange tarpaulin.

·      Dimitry – Russian mafia type guy, also known as (and use a scary deep Russian voice here please) “Hey! Wait a moment…” (Actually when I say scary Russian voice, you can think Cookie Monster)

·      Me… I’ll be known as the ‘Shushing guy’.

·      Police Captain – for this exercise, I start him telling the story and is known as Captain 'Passed Over for Promotion.'

·      The police captain’s sidekick – we will call him 'Constable Too Tall and Too Handsome’.

The story starts with how I image 'the police captain’s report…' started...

Date 15^thOctober 2019

Time 04:30am

Location – local public 24hr laundromat.

It was a typical quiet Sunday nightshift. At 3am an unusual report came in, two suspicious men were apparently naked in the local laundromat. Normally I would dispatch Constable Too Tall and Too Handsome for trivial matters (he needs the experience) however with the unusual nature of the report I felt the situation warranted more of a senior and experienced presence. Besides naked foreigners at 3am could indicated a potentially volatile situation involving alcohol or even drugs. I brought my ‘Piece.’

We arrived at 3:07am and entered the premises. We discovered one naked man wrapped in an orange tarpaulin and one clothed man lying on a sleeping bag and ‘gently snoring’… at this point Constable Too Tall and Too Handsome became an anime character and starts to scream and yell at Naked Guy Wrapped in a Tarpaulin… I assist during the gaps, until something completely unexpected happened… 

At this point I jump to ‘context’ for this story and Dimitri the ‘Hey! Wait a moment’ (HWAM) guy.

Two nights earlier.

It was the first day/night of the 5^thedition of the Japanese Odyssey and I had found myself riding with four other guys, including ‘Hey! Wait a Moment’. Our plan was to reach CP2. The last 20kms took two hours longer than the expected 60-90mins, (I only include this to highlight fatigue levels). Not wanting to sleep at the top of a mountain, myself and one other (Simone) headed down, eventually stopping around 2am to bivvy. We quietly set camp and tried to sleep…

Naked Orange Tarpaulin Guy...
Clothed mode.

Some indeterminate time later, maybe 30mins or so ‘HWAM’ guy turned up... Now ‘HWAM’ had a very powerful light attached to his helmet. HWAM decided to camp with us, which was fine, except it appeared that HWAM could not find a spot… we are in a country 3500km long and HWAM cannot find 12 sq ft to put down his mat... I swear, for the next 30mins HWAM looked back and forth, back and forth (all the while, deeply sighing in an irritated Russian mafia guy type way “Hmmmm….! Hmmmm…!” Yes, Cookie Monster). This would not have been too bad, except every time he looked back and forth his 20,000 lumen light pierced my eyelids, my eyeballs, and my brain all the way through to lighting up the back of my skull. After just 30 minutes of ‘enjoying this ‘light-show’ and not sleeping,’ my annoyance found voice…

“Dude! Turn off that fogging light!!!”

“oh oh… er sorry” Cookie Monster I mean HWAM said and the ‘second sun’ went dim and finally set for the night.

I left HWAM the next morning and did not see him again until the start of S5, about 36 hours later… “Hey! Wait a moment!” I hear behind me, it was Cookie Monster, “We go Usuki Ferry Tonight! Yes!”

“Well, er… yes, that was my plan” I respond.

“Okay, lets go!” Gravels Cookie Monster.

A couple kms later we came across Alain (Naked Orange Tarpaulin Guy or NOTG). “Do you want to ride with us?” I ask NOTG. Please note, Alain is not naked at this point.

We set off together and the night was pretty uneventful apart from HWAM crashing (slowly) into me and forcing both of us to almost crash into the back of a ‘relieving’ himself NOTG. “oh, oh… er… sorry” said Cookie Monster.

It became apparent that HWAM was very good at climbing hills as he would race up them; but less strong at descending… and HWAM seemed to be having trouble with his brakes… we would stop and wait for HWAM, he would catch us, get off his bike say “Hey! Wait a moment…” fiddle with his brakes and then we would continue.

The last ferry was at 2:40am it was after midnight and we were still 65kms away… At this pace we were not going to make it, so NOTG and I stopped waiting for HWAM and made a run for the ferry. We fly the first 50kms, we are time trialing… but with 30mins and 16kms to go we hit a huge climb. Time speeds up, we slow down - we won’t make the ferry.

Now at this point I have been moving for 71 hours and I had slept for around six hours - yes, tired. NOTG and I eventually get to Usuki but the next ferry is not until 8:30...

I cut this next bit short. 

Shush!!!

NOTG stops at a laundry, and I carry on, but only to the next laundry (I’m looking for power). NOTG was gonna wash his gear and I figured I may as well do mine. I load up the machine, lay out my mat, and as I am about to lay down NOTG turns up, he is gonna do his laundry here instead. I don’t care, I lay down, cover my eyes with a bandana and sleep. 

I’m aware that HWAM is not that far behind… but whatever… he won’t disturb my sleep again…

I am out instantly, lack of sleep and none stop exercise has taken its toll on my mind and body… however, eventually, I can hear loud voices trying to penetrate my mind… they get louder and louder… I cannot tell what they are saying but it is annoying… wait… has Cookie Monster turned up? This is just my third night, I'm trying to sleep and he is keeping me awake again…!?! AGAIN?

“SHUSH!!!”

It went quiet.

Kinda, it did not go silent but it was definitely more subdued. I fall back asleep.

Some time later NOTG shakes my shoulder gently “Christopher, Christopher… we have to leave, the police are here… I’ve explained to them everything, but we have to leave.” I drag myself from sleep “What?’ NOTG explains again. I look at NOTG and he is naked except for an orange tarpaulin wrapped around his waist. I look around the room and there are two police officers looking at us. One has his hand on his ‘piece’ They look nervous.

Hey! Wait a Moment!

My mind starts to work… ‘where is HWAM…? Ah… no HWAM guy… who did I shush then…? Click… the penny drops, it must have been… the police…’ 

I stagger over to the washing machine, my gear is still wet… I take it out and take it to the dryer… NOTG says to the police “Is okay?” the two police officers look at each other and shrug… too late anyway, I had started the machine.

That was almost the end, I tried to add one more thing… I got my camera out gave it to Constable Too Tall and Too Handsome and asked him to take a picture, whilst Captain was pretending to arrest me… they didn’t go for it, but it did make them smile.

I only saw Dimitri one more time after that, the next day I saw a rider ahead of me and as I got close, he stopped, got off his bike and started messing with his rear tyre. “Hey Dimitri, how are you doing?” I called out to him as I rode past…

“Hey!” he started, I can’t be sure, but I think he finished with “…Don’t Wait a moment...” 

Obviously I have embellished for my own entertainment and let’s call it artistic license, however, the story is all true. And Dimitri? Well Dimitri was great, he was kind and thoughtful… but he did make a good character… once I added some elements J

Big White is AWESOME! Buying property here.

Or... more specifically at Big White.

I'm guessing you have considered it... well if you are reading this. Or maybe you will read this and then say - 'brilliant, what is the number of my realtor?' Or maybe you will say - "Ha! This lunatic is a lunatic." 

Property Values.
Property values at Big White have been on a roller coaster since I arrived in 2000. Back then I purchased a small piece of land in Snowpines for $105k and a small 2 bed, one bath condo for $129k. From 2002 to 2011 the same piece of land had both increased to $200k then back down to around $25k - if... you could find a buyer. 2019? There is no land available but I would guess similar Lots would be in the $100k - $150k range.

Wait... what am I worth?

Big White is a small place, roughly 2400 properties, mostly multi family, very small hotel room size properties to some very large (and expensive) single family homes, at the other end of the spectrum - as I write $109k to $6.3m. The $6.3m property is only four bedroom (nine bathrooms...) but large - the Master Bedroom is 46'x36' or 1656 square feet... to put that into perspective, it is roughly the size of my four bed, three bathroom house. If interested this is the link. It is quite nice... expensive to buy and maintain tho.

$500k would get you anything from a 2 bed 2 bath place to a 5 bed 4 bath - quite the range.

Historical Property Values.
In the last generation (20 years) the market peaked around 2007. My development company was selling 1100 sq ft very high spec condos for around $425k and premium single family homes for $2m (3900 sq ft Edge homes). Four years later the same properties were roughly $200k and $1m respectively - quite a drop eh? Yes, it was painful.

Today (April 2019) they are around $350k and maybe $1.5m respectively. Not bad if you bought at the bottom, not great if at the top of the market.

And that is 12 years later. 12 years and the market has still not fully recovered. 

Shall we buy... or sell?

Factors Affecting Values.
You can look at value from a number of perspectives - Capital Ratio, Replacement Cost and Market Value.

Capital Ratio. Important to Investors
Okay, lets say you put your money in the bank and the bank gave you 1% interest. For every $100 you would earn $1. The Cap Ratio is 1%. Now let's say a property would give you $5 on every $100 you spent, or a 5% Cap Ratio. An institutional buyer may come in and want to buy every available property that gives it a minimum 5% Cap Ratio. 

Let us say a typical property can generate $5k per bedroom per annum. Then a two bed place is worth $200k, four bed $400k. At $6k per bedroom the values are $240k and $480k. At 5% Cap the $6.3m log cabin is worth $400k. The one bedroom $109k studio is worth $100k.

Replacement Cost. 

How much?

Important to buyers who want to live in the property. Current costs of construction are in the region of $400+ per sq ft, plus land. For example, a condo in The Raven 1100 sq ft would cost around $440k plus land ($23k in 2006) plus furnishings ($30k in 2007). The $1.1m house down the road with 3600 sq ft - $1.44m plus $300k for land.

As you can see it is far more expensive to build that to buy something already in place.

Market Value.
Important to investors, buyers and owners.
Or what does something comparable cost? The Raven unit my development company still owns is on the market for $349k. Why? Well the last property sold for $380k, other properties are $370k - $400k. We want to be competitive. 

Comparable Values for the Raven in the example above.

• Historical 2007 - $410k (we refused and offer at this amount)
• Capital Ratio at 5% or $12,500 = $250k
• Replacement Cost = roughly $500k
• Market = $350k

Note - other factors play a part, wear and tear, maintenance, operating costs, taxes, owner usage requirements... the list goes on and on.

However, as important in the equations is Future Market Value or 'How much will it be worth?' How long is a piece of string? I don't know the answer to that either. But, I can make some guesstimates based on some known quantities.

The argument for value growth.

• Revenue - what are the projections? Well, Big White is evolving -



Yep, values are gonna go this way.

• Summer activities. A Timbers property enjoyed $2k of rentals in the summer of 2018 - A 5% Cap adds $40k to the value.
• More buyers are buying to own, reducing the availability of both vacation rental properties and long term rental properties. This is leading to a drop in supply. 
• Values have not reached construction costs. Developers will not begin to develop property until property values are around 20% higher than construction costs. The Raven property at $350k would need to be $600k. Or Construction costs need to drop by 50%...
• Is this likely? No. Construction at Big White uses around 4 times more concrete than similar properties in Kelowna (snow load requirements). The cost of concrete is roughly 60% higher at Big White - concrete is trucked up from Kelowna. If labor costs dropped by half and fuel costs dropped by half and raw material costs dropped by half... then maybe. But if that happened we would have bigger things to worry about anyway.
• Supply and Demand.
• There are as I write (April 2019) 85 properties listed at Big White. An efficient market (number of buyers match the number of sellers) is estimated to be around 5%-8% of total properties. 2400 properties would indicate 120 - 192 listings. Supply is too low, this indicates a sellers market. 
• Will the Supply change? No new places will be built until values jump 40%-50%
• Will demand drop? Yes, if values jump 50%.

What if we buy and the market crashes...?
What if we wait and the market jumps...?

The Argument for downward pressure on values.

• International Market
• Exchange rate factors. In 2005 the British Pound bought you $2.5 CDN. US$1 bought CDN$1.65. Today $1.72 and $1.3 respectively. Properties that were cheap for the international market are far more expensive. This factor puts downward pressure on the market.
• The exchange rate is affected by a number of things - US Donald Trump (the wild card puts downward pressure on the Greenback), UK Brexit (the uncertainty again downward pressure) Canada Oil prices (strong oil prices drives up the value of the CDN$).
• Mortgage Limitations
• Banks don't like risk. Your mortgage cost is related to the perceived risk the bank is exposed to.
• For example, a family in Kelowna buying a $400k house to live in is far less of a risk than a speculative investor from the UK buying a property in Snowpines to rent. The Kelowna family maybe able to secure a 95% mortgage at 2%... the speculative investor? Maybe 50% at 5%.
• Big White because it is considered 'Recreational' is a higher risk.
• Snowpines with its unique Company Share Structure ownership title in a Recreational area... is very high risk. Banks don't lend to buyers.
• The Mortgage Limitation puts significant downward pressure on values at Big White, especially Snowpines.

Let me think...

But what is my guesstimate? Okay, take the Raven, if revenue grows as expected in the winter, and grows at 100% in the summer (remember it is a super low base) for a couple years before stabilizing  (maybe $1k, $2k, $4k, $6k...) then $560k in seven years. Or roughly 7% per annum. 

Selling.
What if you want to sell (especially in Snowpines)? Market value is low because of the mortgage limitations. Buyers cannot fund the purchase and they also ask themselves 'who will be my purchaser when I sell?'

So, Market Value is going to be far below replacement value. But if you have been trying to sell you know this anyway. 

But you can still sell... if you can find the right kind of buyer and are willing to employ none traditional means.

None Traditional Purchase Options.

• Rent to Own. 
• The buyer rents the property at an increased rate with a fixed price and fixed future completion date.

  

  What if we did
  that?

• For example, market rent $18k per annum for a $300k home.
• Over payment maybe $24k per annum ($6k towards outstanding debt).
• Future completion - 5 years.
• Price in five years - $300k less the $30k (the $6k x five) already paid.
• Benefits to the owner-
• Property is sold.
• Property costs are covered.
• If the buyer backs out, excess rent is retained by the vendor.
• Benefits to the buyer-
• They step into the property market.
• The future price is fixed - they know the future commitment.
• The future price is reduced by the excess paid - a savings pot.
• They enjoy any capital increases in property value.
• They build a credit history.
• Vendor Take-Back or Wrap Mortgages.
• In this case the owner agrees to finance the purchase for example from 5 - 10 years. The vendor will usually demand a down payment, usually in the region of 5%-10% plus a higher interest rate.
• Benefits to the owner.
• Property is sold.
• A lump of cash is secured.
• Higher interest rate is earned on the capital employed.
• Stable income is provided.
• Benefits to the buyer.
• They own their own property.
• Their payments go to paying down the Capital rather than rent.
• Their downpayment is likely to be less than a traditional purchase at Big White.

Yeah, don't worry... cleaning costs are included in the rental rate...

Revenue Stream Options.
I will touch on this quickly.

• Vacation Rental. 
• Rental Company - Big White need more properties, their demand is far in excess of their supply. The same goes for Vacasa, and Chalets at Big White. The charges are high - as much as 50% of revenue.
• Self Managed - AirBnB, Allura Direct, Owner Direct.
• Their cost profiles vary from fixed fee to a percentage of the revenue.
• You will have to manage cleaning/turnovers.
• This is challenging, cleaning companies are expensive but changeovers can be any day - do you want to drive up from Kelowna on Christmas Day?

Long term tenants have unique hobbies.

• Staff or Long Term.
• Staff - like Big White we are desperate for more properties; again our demand is in far excess of our supply.
• Pros-
• We have a long term track record of providing reliable property management services.
• Our rates are very competitive.
• Our tenants are screened and more often than not are returning tenants.
• We guarantee income.
• We guarantee properties are returned as found. This does not include normal wear and tear.
• We are on call 24 hours a day.
• We have our own maintenance team.
• We hold a deposit from the tenants.
• We cover all utility costs.
• Self Managed long term.
• Pros -
• Higher revenue - despite the huge demand... we don't work for free... However, we do offer competitive rates.

There are risks...

So, finally... ownership can be complicated, there are risks, future value projections complicated. But if you are interested in property at Big White, ask yourself why you want to own...

• Long term investment?
• Revenue generation?
• To live?
• To spend time (weekends, holidays) with the family?
• A combination of any/all of the above?

Answering these questions will help you choose the property that is right for your needs.

A little self promo here - if you are looking to buy as an investment, we are looking for long term rental properties.

In addition, if you are looking to sell and willing to offer 'Rent to Own' or 'Vendor Finance' terms, we are actively searching for property to acquire.

Please contact us at solidorentals@gmail.com if you interested in either.

Sólido Properties Ltd has been doing business at Big White since 2001. From property development, property marketing, property sales, property maintenance and renovation. Our development portfolio includes - The Raven, The Timbers, The Edge and Glacier Lodge.